Tuesday, March 14, 2006

It's Maddening

March Madness is here. Probably the best time of year (if you happen to live in a college town, at least.)

The following are my random thoughts, observations and unfounded opinions on how the tournament and in particular the Illini will do this year.

-- Yeah, Illinois got screwed with a No. 4 seed. I honestly believe this is payback for the nearly free ride to the Final Four they got last year. It was almost embarrassing. And fun.

-- A lot of other teams got screwed, too. Cincinnati and Missouri State (formerly SW Missouri State). Gonzaga got screwed.

-- No way Tennessee's a 2 seed. Iowa should be a 4 seed, especially with their injuries. Not only is Air Force in, which is just plain wrong, they're in as a 13 seed. Montana of the Big Sky Conference a 12 seed? Please. They make up for their lack of height by being slow. North Carolina a No. 3. With 7 losses? Including one to 4-seed Illinois? They're seeded on reputation, not results. I think reputation helped others as well. And hurt some, too. I think UCLA's good. I think Gonzaga's better. UCLA's a 2, the 'Zags a 3. Go figure. George Washington, with only 2 losses, is better than an 8.

-- Can Illinois make a deep run? Sure. Will they? Probably not. Why? The only thing consistent about this team is its inconsistency. Everyone on the team must come ready to play if they're to have a chance. That can happen. Hope it does.

-- Breaking down the Illini: Dee and James will have a good tournament. McBride and Smith are coming in with confidence. I'm worried about Randle and Pruitt. Both could contribute markedly. Both should. Both need to if the Illini hope to make a run. But will they? Sure Randle is a good defender. But other than Sportscenter dunks, he's soft on offense. He gets the ball slapped out of his hands an awful lot and is tentative about taking it strong to the hoop. Pruitt has shown the skills at times but he disappears at times, too. I was really expecting a lot more from Arnold and Carter this year. If they come on in the tournament they could have a major impact. I kept waiting for Frazier to have an impact. It never happened, and I'm at a loss as to why.

-- I look for Illinois to win its first two games, but after that, facing Connecticut may be asking more than they can deliver. Sure it's possible, but the smart money's not on it.

-- I still think Illinois has one of the best coaches in the country. Weber's still a steal. He both teaches and coaches. His players respect him. And they like him. Plus, his voice is an entertainment experience unto itself.

-- I sure hope the Illini don't look at Air Force like one NG writer labeled it: a first-round bye. It's still a team that won 24 games this year. You don't do that with smoke and mirrors.

-- Finally, I don't have a real prediction on who will win the whole thing, except to say that I DON'T think it will be a No. 1 seed.

-- I'm not entering any bracket pools this year. My failure rate is too high and I'm just not in a position to do so anyway. With my track record, it isn't gambling. It's donating to someone's welfare cause.

-- And the worst news of all? I'll be on the road and likely will miss all the Thursday and Friday games.

And so it goes.

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