But with exactly two weeks to go before the first round of silliness is over, it's time for a few observations. These are just my thoughts, based on a couple decades of paying pretty close attention to Illinois elections. But face it, they're opinions. My opinions. This is MY blog. If you want facts, check the MSM.
Like it or hate it, it's gonna be Topinka vs. Blagojevich. Live with it.
In the GOP, here's my prediction on the primary finish: Topinka with about 50 percent. Oberweis second followed by Brady, Gidwitz and Andy Martin with less than 1 percent
Why? Topinka has the name recognition. She's also the least wingnutty of the bunch, and there sure are a few real wingnuts in this field. After the total disaster of Alan Keyes in the last Senate election, hard-core rightwingers aren't gonna be the most popular with the general voting public. Sure the ultras are popular with the wild-eyed conservative right-wing wingnuts. But despite their vocalizations, they're right now in a retrenching mode. Judy's also's a ringer for Ronald McDonald, which probably will help, too. As a moderate, her politics don't scare as many people as do those of some of the other nutter-butters in the race.
Why will Obie finish second? He's spending a bundle in advertising, especially up north in the Chicago area. While money can't buy an election, it probably can buy enough recognition for a second-place finish. Second place in a primary is kind the Miss Congenality of the political world.
Why will Brady finish third? He's too downstate and two conservative for most Chicago voters and collar-county voters. He really hasn't done enough advertising to become well-enough known. It's doubtful he can have much impact in the final two weeks. Maybe with a really reallly big push he could challenge Obie for Miss Congenality. But that'd be a stretch, given Obie's money and Brady's lack of same. Plus about the only statewide press he's had is the little thing about him starting every speach with a prayer. That fundamentalism, while not all that bad, I suppose, isn't gonna play all that well with the general populace who simply put has heard too much of that stuff in recent years. It's off-putting. Will the NG endorsement help? No. In the decades I've lived here, I've only felt a NG endorsement has only helped in one race. A NG endorsement and $2.75 will get you a double skinny grande capuccino at just about any Starbucks.
Gidwitz? Has he even advertised? Is he still running?
Andy Martin? Damn, it'd be fun to have him as the nominee. It'd be a blast to have him as the gov. Fat chance.
And the Democratic primary.
Some of the things Ed Eisendrath says make a lot of sense. Some don't. He has less chance than Winthrop in the NCAA tournament. He doesn't have the money. He doesn't have the backing of any of the party bigwigs. He doesn't have a $16 million war chest. And he doesn't have the incumbency.
He doesn't have a chance.
But then again, anyone ever thought that just maybe he's really running for 2010?
That's it. Judy vs. Rod. Two long-time Illinois political hacks, cut from generally the same cloth.
We could do worse. But we sure could do better, too.
And so it goes.
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