I was shocked, shocked, I tell you.
In a move that surprised exactly no one, ex-state legislator Judy Myers of Danville announced her candidacy for the 52nd Senate District. Who would have imagined?
It's been area politics' worst-kept secret for a couple of weeks, so the formal announcement, made in separate dog-and-pony shows in Danville and Champaign, caught no one by surprise.
Nor did any of the other 'news' accompanying the announcement. News like statements from former state Rep. Tom Berns and political hack and Champaign County Clerk Mark Shelden will not be running for the position. Seems like the area Republicans want a unified candidacy in order to keep the seat in GOP hands. (Or they fear their already confused, disunified party structure can't afford anything like an actual open race.)
Why they think a legitimate primary race would hurt I can't imagine. A spirited race gets lots of names out into the public consciousness. Name recognition counts for more than a few votes in a race like this.
Or are they so afraid of Democratic challenger Champaign County Auditor Michael Frerichs of Gifford that they can't afford anything but lockstep unity? (Insert smiley emoticon here.)
Meanwhile, certain factions within the area GOP ranks are insisting that Myers will be a slam-dunk winner over Frerichs. I don't know how they figure this.
When Myers took over for state Sen Harry 'Babe' Woodard, she represented Vermilion, Douglas, Clark, Coles, Edgar and Iroquois counties. When her district was redistricted to include parts of Champaign County, she was defeated in the 2002 primary by Rick Winkel.
Her new district would include the eastern half of Champaign County and all but the top portion of Vermilion County. The territory covers the communities of Allerton, Alvin, Belgium, Bismarck, Broadlands, Catlin, Champaign, Danville, Fairmont, Fithian, Georgetown, Gifford, Henning, Homer, Indianola, Longview, Muncie, Oakwood, Ogden, Philo, Potomac, Rantoul, Ridge Farm, Royal, St. Joseph, Savoy, Sidney, Thomasboro, Tilton, Urbana and Westville.
There are a lot places in that list that Myers has not shown particular strength in. Figure in Champaign and Urbana, which may be reluctant to be represented in the state Senate by someone from outside of Champaign County, and what you have is a race.
Hardly a slam-dunk, despite what some delusional Repubs would have you believe.
It's a long journey from the announcement to the state house. And it's a tough fight ahead for a 66-year-old former legislator. Particularly one who was an awarded a late-term patronage appointment by outgoing Gov. George Ryan. You know, the former governor now being tried for about a bajillion counts of corruption.
Sure, she can win it. But she can lose it, too.
And so it goes.
9 comments:
so is the left in Champaign County going to unite behind Frerichs, despite his disjointed, obfuscated stance on abortion?
The post never said that; all it said was that Champaign County voters have been known to be very geocentric in the past and there's no indication they won't be in the future. Champaign and Vermilion counties and the counties' populations are very dissimilar, and therefore their votes are, too.
this presupposes that GOP voters in the Champaign County portion of the district won't vote for her.
Not necessarily, but it presupposes (given past history) that SOME Champaign County GOP voters will not vote for her. You seem to be presupposing that she will carry Vermilion County unanimously. Are there not Democrats there? Might they vote for the Democratic candidate rather than a recycled Ryan appointee?
If she does ok in Champaign County she beats him.
He needs to do well in Vermillion County to win, he cannot rely solely on beating her in Champaign county.
She will beat him by at least 70/30 in Vermillion County.
I'm guessing you also believe in the Easter Bunny. 70/30 in Vermilon County? With the nasty George Ryan baggage she's carrying? She'll probably carry Vermilion, but 70/30, come on.
Bill Black might carry Vermilion 70/30, but Myers? That's Really Really Really optimistic.
and Frerichs won't get dragged down by Blago in Champaign County or anywhere else?
pass the Kool-Aid.
Since there is no direct connection between Blago and Frerichs (and the assorted Blago blunders) other than political party, that's a bit of a stretch.
The only way Frerichs goes down as part of an area-wide or statewide anti-Democratic backlash is if the GOP comes up with a strong, clean, popular statewide candidate to lead the party's resurgence. Who ya got? Oberweis? Bible Bill Brady? Blago's a disaster, sure, but until he gets a legitimate competitor (or gets indicted, which ain't likely, although may end up being justified) he's still the frontrunner.
And having a Democratic frontrunner doesn't help Myers, which is the subject here. I never said I liked Frerichs. Just that I didn't think Myers was the slamdunk a lot of GOPers think.
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