I think

Random musings about Rick Winkel's decision not to run for re-election:

I THINK ... I think it's entire plausible that we can take what Winkel said on face value; that he's leaving politics (at least temporarily) because he wants to take his career in a different direction. It's possible he wants to resume private life because as a lawyer he can make more money than as a state senator. (At least as an honest state senator, and there's every indication that's what he was).

I THINK ... I think it's also plausible that Winkel WON'T be involved in any Edgar gubernatorial campaign.

I THINK ... I think the political season just got a LOT more interesting in central Illinois given the opening. Both parties - on a statewide basis - want that seat. They want it BAD. That means lots of money coming in and lots of statewide party arm twisting.

I THINK ... I think Bill Black will make a serious run at the seat. He's already indicated that. 'I am interested'. he's quoted as saying in Friday's News-Gazette. I don't know whether that's a good decision. He's in a position of some considerable power in the House; he gives that up as a freshman senator, even given his political pedigree.

I THINK ... I DON'T think Black's as much of a slam-dunk as many GOP people would think if he runs. I question his support in Champaign County. Media reports for years have portrayed him as something of a loose cannon on the House floor. And I question whether Champaign County folks will rally around a Vermilion County candidate in the numbers the GOP might hope for. Do Champaign folks really want to adopt Danville's loose cannon?

I THINK ... I also don't think Mike Frerichs is a slam dunk for the Democratic nomination. He has pretty good name recognition, but he's lacking in statewide campaign strength. Auditor's nice, but this is the state Senate. He hasn't played too successfully on a statewide stage yet. This is closer to the big time. He's probably the front-runner right now, however.

I THINK ... I think you can expect candidacies from Judy Myers and Tom Berns (or at least strong exploratory pushes) and probably an early push from Mark Shelden.

I THINK ... I don't think any of the following will be able to launch viable candidacies: Shelden (too much bad pub, too much baggage), Naomi Jacobsson, Todd Satterthwaite, Deb Feinen, Scott Tapley, Laurel Prussing or Dannel McCollum. Not even Matt Varble.

I THINK ... I think before this is sorted out, there will be a few more names that aren't as well known exploring the possibilities.

I THINK ... I think where Winkel will be missed the most will be in the area of education. While the Ol' Guy didn't agree with Winkel all that often (OK, very rarely), in the area of education, both in UI support and in school funding, he was a pretty positive force for our schools.

I THINK ... I think Champaign County's GOP had best get its act together pretty quickly or it's gonna end up looking pretty bad in relation to this state Senate campaign. And the Champaign County Dems had better not sit back and count on the GOP disarray, either. This is gonna end up as a 12-round cage match.

I THINK ... I'm probably totally wrong about 98 percent of the above.

I THINK ... I think that as an observer, this is gonna be fun.

And so it goes.